Blue Jays' 648 Runs Make Offense the Offseason Test

A 79–83 finish can be made to sound manageable. The Blue Jays were below .500, but not so far below it that someone cannot talk themselves into a different outcome next year.

That is the wrong starting point. Toronto finished fifth in its division. Its offense scored 648 runs in 162 games, an average of 4 per game. If the club treats that as a near miss, it risks mistaking a short distance from .500 for a short distance from having a good team.

The offseason test should be straightforward: does Toronto make a convincing case that its offense will be better, or does it merely assume that it will be?

Start with what the lineup produced

The Blue Jays hit .247, posted a .691 OPS and hit 152 home runs. Those numbers do not identify every problem or prescribe a particular transaction. They do describe the offense the club actually had.

That matters because offseason arguments have a habit of moving quickly from results to possibilities. A hitter could improve. A different arrangement could work. A signing could help, if the right signing happens. Possibilities belong in a plan, but they cannot stand in for one.

Toronto should be able to say what it believes needs to change about the way this team scores. Is it expecting more from its existing hitters? Is it looking to add offense? How much of the answer depends on developments the club can influence, and how much depends on hoping for better results from the same group?

Those are questions, not claims that a particular player failed in a particular way. The team totals do not give us that level of detail. They do give us enough to reject an offseason built around the idea that four runs per game require no serious examination.

A rebound is not a complete strategy

There is nothing unreasonable about expecting improvement from players already in the organization. It would be unreasonable to count that improvement as accomplished before it happens.

The difference is especially important for a fifth-place club. If Toronto adds nothing to its offensive outlook except confidence, the case for change will rest almost entirely on the season ahead being kinder than the one behind it. Confidence can accompany a plan. It cannot be the plan’s only working part.

A useful offensive plan would make its assumptions visible. Which parts of the 2026 production does the club believe were below what its hitters can sustain? What would it do if those beliefs prove wrong? Those answers do not require the Blue Jays to disclose every internal discussion. They require the organization to recognize that an untested expectation is a risk.

The 79–83 record makes that risk consequential. Toronto does not need to pretend every existing hitter is a lost cause. It does need to stop asking the previous season’s offense to earn the benefit of the doubt simply because it is familiar.

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Do not confuse activity with repair

The listed October signings are minor-league contracts for right-hander Windel Encarnacion, outfielder Orangel Guanaguaney and shortstop Cayro Hazel. Right-hander Siwoo Kwon also signed a minor-league contract in September.

Those moves may serve a purpose. Nothing in the supplied transactions establishes what any of those players will contribute to the major-league offense. Guanaguaney and Hazel, in particular, should not be presented as answers to the team’s hitting totals just because their positions appear beside their names.

This is not an argument against adding depth. It is an argument for keeping the categories straight. Organizational work can be worthwhile while the central question remains open: how will the Blue Jays improve the production of the team that takes the field?

Nor does the lack of an answer in these listed transactions mean Toronto has decided against one. The offseason is not finished. But judging the offseason honestly will require more than pointing to movement and calling it progress.

Set the standard before the next move

A serious response to 79–83 would not have to be loud. It would have to be specific about the gap between the offense Toronto had and the offense it believes can win more games.

The club can choose to trust some incumbents. It can seek help elsewhere. It can do both. What it cannot responsibly do is use fifth place as evidence that everything was nearly right and then leave its offensive assumptions unchallenged.

The numbers are not a verdict on every hitter. They are a demand that the people building the team explain their choices. Toronto scored 648 runs. The next version of the Blue Jays needs a better answer than waiting for that number to improve.